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Prediction markets have exploded into the mainstream. Once a niche curiosity, platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket now attract millions of users, turning elections, economic indicators and world events into markets on what will happen next. What are these markets, why are they suddenly everywhere, and what does it mean when we put a price on the future?
Michael Auerbach, executive chairman of the geopolitical intelligence and strategic advisory firm Lamplighter Group, talks to renowned journalist Patrick Radden Keefe — bestselling author of Say Nothing, Empire of Pain, and London Falling — about the hidden forces shaping prediction markets, and what their explosive rise reveals about power, money, politics, and our appetite for betting on the future.
In his new book, The Big Bet: Prediction Markets and the Future of Democracy, Auerbach investigates the rise of prediction markets and their growing influence on our political and civic life. He explores the promise of “the wisdom of crowds” alongside concerns about insider trading, manipulation and the commodification of democracy.
Auerbach and Radden Keefe share a fascination with the hidden systems that shape public life. Auerbach brings a perspective grounded in geopolitics, intelligence and risk, while Radden Keefe has built his career investigating networks of power, money and secrecy. Together, they explore how prediction markets work, who benefits from them, the high-stakes battles over their regulation, and what their growing influence reveals about the way we understand the politics of risk, information, and the future.
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Michael Auerbach is executive chairman of Lamplighter Group, a geopolitical intelligence and strategic advisory firm with offices in London, New York, and Abu Dhabi, and founder of Subversive Capital, an investment firm focused on frontier markets. He previously spent over a decade as a partner at Albright Stonebridge Group. He serves as lead independent director of Canaccord Genuity and lives in New York.
Patrick Radden Keefe is a master investigative journalist and storyteller, whose groundbreaking reporting focuses on themes of crime and corruption, secrets and lies, and the permeable membrane separating licit and illicit worlds. A longtime staff writer at The New Yorker and the bestselling author of six books, his work has exposed the Sackler family for their role in the opioid crisis and identified the culprit in a notorious, decades-old murder. In his lively talks, he offers a colorful and often funny behind-the-scenes look at the sagas he has spent his career exploring, and makes an inspiring case for the importance of truth and the power of old-fashioned storytelling.
His latest book, the #1 New York Times bestseller London Falling: A Mysterious Death in a Gilded City and a Family’s Search for Truth, investigates the complicated life and mysterious death of Zac Brettler, a London teenager who, unbeknownst to his parents, developed a secret alter ego, posing as the son of a Russian oligarch. Meticulously reported and paced like a thriller, London Falling is a suspenseful tour of the sordid, vicious underworld beneath one of the world’s great capital cities. It was named One of the Best Books of the Year (So Far) by The New York Times and was a New York Times Book Review Book Club pick.
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